Good Social Media Influence in Shaping The 2024 Election

Let’s explore how social media influences voter perceptions, amplifies political messaging, and contributes to polarization.

Social Media Influence and Polarization

Articles By

Emily Kubin & Christian Von Sikorski

Rising political polarization is, in part, attributed to the fragmentation of news media and the spread of misinformation on social media. Previous reviews have yet to assess the full breadth of research on media and polarization. We systematically examine 94 articles (121 studies) that assess the role of (social) media in shaping political polarization.

Using quantitative and qualitative approaches, we find an increase in research over the past 10 years and consistently find that pro-attitudinal media exacerbates polarization. We find a hyperfocus on analyses of Twitter and American samples and a lack of research exploring ways (social) media can depolarize. Additionally, we find ideological and affective polarization are not clearly defined, nor consistently measured. Recommendations for future research are provided.

The role of (social) media in political polarization: a systematic review

Political polarization is on the rise not only in the United States (Arceneaux et al., Citation2013; see also Abramowitz & Saunders, Citation2008; Pew Research Center, Citation2017), but also across the world (Gidron et al., Citation2019). Today political elites (Heaney et al., Citation2012), elected officials (Hare & Poole, Citation2014), and everyday people (Frimer et al., Citation2017) are polarized.Footnote¹ There are two distinct forms of political polarization.

The first is ideological polarization, which is the divergence of political opinions, beliefs, attitudes, and stances of political adversaries (Dalton, Citation1987). The second is affective polarization, which is based on work considering the role of identity in politics (Mason, Citation2018), and how identity salience within groups (e.g. political parties) can exacerbate out-group animosity (e.g. Gaertner et al., Citation1993; Iyengar et al., Citation2012). Affective polarization assesses the extent to which people like (or feel warmth towards) their political allies and dislike (or feel lack of warmth towards) their political opponents (Iyengar et al., Citation2012).

Higher levels of polarization can be beneficial for society – predicting higher levels of political participation, and perceptions of electoral choice (Wagner, Citation2021). However, political polarization can also be bad for democracy, increasing the centralization of power (Lee, Citation2015), congressional gridlock (Jones, Citation2001), and making citizens less satisfied (Wagner, Citation2021). Previous work has also highlighted interpersonal implications of polarization, including an unwillingness to interact with (Frimer et al.,Citation2017), and dehumanization towards (Mason, Citation2018) political adversaries.

Given that people are unwilling to engage in day-to-day interactions with their political adversaries, many build their impressions of opponents via the media – meaning (social) media is increasingly shaping how we perceive the political environment. As media has become more fragmentated (Van Aelst et al., Citation2017) and partisan (DellaVigna & Kaplan, Citation2007), people have become more polarized both ideologically (Jones, Citation2002) and affectively (Lau et al., Citation2017).

However, media may not always have a polarizing effect on viewers. Some suggest social media (Valenzuela et al., Citation2019) and traditional media (Udani et al., Citation2018) have no effect on political polarization. While others suggest in certain circumstances, political information can actually have a depolarizing effect on viewers (Beam et al., Citation2018; Kubin et al., Citation2021; Wojcieszak et al., Citation2020). These mixed results highlight our understanding of when and why media exacerbates polarization is murky, pointing to the need for assessment of the literature.

Social Media Influence More Prominent in 2024

In the upcoming election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the social media influence on voters will be more significant than ever. As the 2024 election approaches, both candidates are strategically leveraging platforms to sway public opinion.

The social media impact on voters, particularly among younger demographics, cannot be underestimated. The youth vote and social media engagement will likely play a crucial role in determining the election’s outcome, as digital campaigning becomes increasingly central to political strategies.

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